Weekly Oil Market Overview: Tariffs, Sanctions, and Geopolitical Tensions
From our company archive. Market commentary reflects its original publication date.
Weekly Oil Market Overview: Tariffs, Sanctions, and Geopolitical Tensions
Oil prices are poised for their first weekly gain in a month, with a modest increase despite ongoing tariff wars and geopolitical uncertainties. Factors such as Trump’s ceasefire plan between Ukraine and Russia and tighter sanctions on Iran have helped balance the market, which has seen Brent crude trading within a narrow band of $69.3-70.9 per barrel since March 5. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its 2025 global oil demand forecast downward by 70,000 b/d, citing a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook and escalating tariff conflicts.
Meanwhile, the Canadian government has filed a WTO dispute against the U.S. over its steel and aluminum tariffs, while India has introduced reforms to attract foreign investment in its upstream oil sector. The U.S. has also ramped up its sanctions on Iran, targeting oil deliveries to China. In Guyana, ExxonMobil is seeking environmental authorization for its first gas project, highlighting the ongoing exploration in the region.
Geopolitical risks remain high, with Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries and concerns over a nuclear scare in South Korea. Other developments include Panama’s decision to authorize the sale of copper concentrate, while U.S. egg diplomacy stirs tensions with Europe. BP, meanwhile, is reportedly looking to sell its solar energy subsidiary, and Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to China have seen a notable drop.
The oil market continues to grapple with various global tensions, influencing oil prices and trade dynamics across the globe.
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