News & perspectives

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the Physical Market.

Company updates and perspectives on the commercial realities of energy trading.

Company News & Trading Perspectives

Company updates and dated market commentary, including the latest posts from our connected Facebook page.

Securing a suitable vessel should not be the last step in a fuel transaction.

Securing a suitable vessel should not be the last step in a fuel transaction.

We can agree on a product, price and loading window, but the transaction still needs a vessel that fits the cargo, ports and timing.

The challenge is not simply the number of ships in the market. Affinity’s October fleet review reports fleet growth, while Hafnia has highlighted longer product-trade routes and LR2 vessels moving into crude employment. More vessels overall does not necessarily mean suitable clean tonnage is available in the right place.

Time-charter business is still being concluded. Scorpio’s September announcement of three-year charters for two LR2s and an MR demonstrates that. However, those fixtures do not tell us what a different vessel should cost today or whether it will suit a particular programme.

For trading across the Mediterranean, Black Sea and African markets, the requirement needs to be clear from the outset:

Vessel size and cargo compatibility.
Delivery position and dates.
Charter period and permitted trading areas.
Port restrictions, vetting and insurance requirements.
Redelivery terms and the cost of positioning.

The daily hire is only one part of the calculation. Bunkers, idle time and the distances between cargoes can make a seemingly attractive charter expensive very quickly.

My view is that shipping needs to be worked alongside the product negotiation, not brought in once everything else has been agreed. Alternatives also need to be realistic, rather than relying on a vessel becoming available at the last minute.

The objective is dependable carrying capacity that fits the business. A competitive product price means little if we cannot move the cargo when required. #DrakensbergEnergy #ProductTankers #TimeCharter

A stronger naphtha market does not automatically create a stronger physical netback.

A stronger naphtha market does not automatically create a stronger physical netback.

In its 12 October commentary, Flux reported the front-month MOPJ naphtha crack at $7.15/bbl, up from $1.30/bbl on 5 October. Separately, OPIS’s survey highlighted the reduced attraction of LPG as an alternative feedstock, alongside cracker maintenance that continues to constrain demand.

For Mediterranean and Black Sea sellers, these are useful signals, but feedstock substitution and additional demand are not the same thing.

The physical trade still needs to work: specification and yield, the pricing month, freight, arrival timing and the receiving plant’s requirements all matter. A stronger eastern benchmark alone does not establish an executable arbitrage.

The same discipline applies when comparing bids. A differential against one regional benchmark cannot be compared directly with a differential against another. Fixing the sale price also leaves exposure if the purchase remains floating over a different period.

At Drakensberg Energy Trading, our focus is on where market signals translate into workable physical transactions.

Flux, 12 October | OPIS, 12 October

#Naphtha #Petrochemicals #PhysicalTrading #DrakensbergEnergy

A Price Is Not a Deal

One thing physical trading keeps reinforcing for me: a price is not a deal. The number has to work first. If it doesn’t, there is little point spending hours debating payment instruments, paperwork and logistics.…

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