ULSD Market Insight | July 1–4, 2025
From our company archive. Market commentary reflects its original publication date.
ULSD Market Insight | July 1–4, 2025
Diesel steadies while oil markets eye OPEC+ and macro headwinds
As the second half of 2025 kicks off, the ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) market finds itself in a cautious holding pattern.
OPEC+ meets on July 6. There’s growing consensus that production will rise again—potentially another 400,000+ barrels/day in August. Markets have priced some of this in, but there’s still risk
if member compliance falters or global demand shows softness.
U.S. inventory levels are once again in focus. The American Petroleum Institute hinted at a surprise crude build last week. That’s not typical for summer—and it may weigh on refined product sentiment if confirmed by the EIA this week.
A softer dollar would normally support oil demand—but confidence remains fragile.
In short, July started with more questions than answers. The diesel market is calm on the surface, but undercurrents—from OPEC policy to U.S. jobs data—are making refiners, traders, and importers
rethink their positions for Q3.
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