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ULSD Market Snapshot – 10-24 Oct 2025 - Winter-grade transition, tight export flows & elevated margins
Key Metrics
The prompt contract for ULSD 10ppm CIF NWE Cargoes (Platts) remains supported, with futures quotes around USD 720/mt for the front‐month.
In the Mediterranean region, the equivalent cargo futures for ULSD 10ppm CIF Med Cargoes are trading in the mid USD 750/mt range.
Refining margins for middle-distillates continue to rise.
Market Notes
The transition to winter-grade diesel is fully reflected in assessments across Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean, with winter specs in play from early September.
Export flows remain a key driver: Indian diesel shipments to Europe reportedly reached their highest level since 2017 in September, driven by attractive margins and reduced Russian refined output.
Despite the elevated exports from India, arbitrage windows remain challenged and supply into Europe remains constrained, supporting the price tone.
On the crude side, rising supply from the Middle East and maintenance at western refineries continue to produce mixed signals, but for diesel the supply–demand balance remains skewed to tightness in several markets.
Outlook
With winter grade specification now in effect, distillate demand can be expected to firm further, especially in Europe and parts of the Northern Hemisphere heading into heating season.
Watch for refinery turnarounds and maintenance schedules: any delay or disruption could tighten the market further.
Export logistics remain crucial: freight costs and geopolitics (including refined product bans or export restrictions) could influence flows and margins.
For markets in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, tightness in Europe may shift pricing dynamics and create arbitrage opportunities, though transport and logistics must be factored in.
#ULSD #Diesel #MiddleDistillates #FuelMarkets #EnergyTrading #RefinedProducts #DieselMarkets #DieselCrack #CIFNWE #CIFMED #SupplyChain #Logistics #InternationalEnergy #drakensbergenergy
Drakensberg Energy extends warm wishes to our Jewish clients, partners, and colleagues this Rosh Hashanah.
As you welcome the New Year, may it be a time of renewal, reflection, and joy for you and your families. We wish you sweetness, prosperity, and peace in the year ahead.
Shanah Tovah.
#RoshHashanah #ShanahTovah #NewBeginnings #energyforthefuture #drakensbergenergy
Diesel markets remain tight, and ULSD prices are holding firm across key hubs. In the U.S. Gulf Coast, spot prices have climbed to around $2.27/gal, up from $2.23 the previous session and nearly 13% higher than this time last year. Similar strength is showing in New York Harbor, where futures have rallied close to 3% in recent days.
Behind the numbers, the story is consistent: global diesel stocks are running below five-year averages, with U.S. and European inventories both under pressure. Refinery maintenance, limited heavy crude supply, and fewer high-diesel-yield feedstocks are squeezing
output at a time when demand has not eased. Transport, industrial, and even seasonal power needs continue to pull hard on the system.
This tight balance has translated into strong refinery margins, with ULSD commanding a healthy premium over crude in most markets. OPEC+ output signals and broader macroeconomic data are now the factors to watch, alongside weekly inventory reports. Any further supply disruptions or refinery outages could accelerate the upward move, while softer economic data may be the only real brake on demand.
#drakensbergenergy
#ULSD
#dieselmarkets
#EnergyTrading
#middleDistillates
ULSD Market Update – September & October 2025
The ULSD market is entering a period of mixed signals.
Key drivers:
Crude Oil: Brent easing from about USD 68 to USD 59/barrel by Q4, lowering input costs.
Inventories: Distillate stocks remain below long-term averages, supported by strong exports and refinery downtime.
Seasonal Demand: Heating oil consumption rises as cooler weather sets in.
Refining Margins: Distillates remain profitable, keeping supply balanced but firm.
Risks: Weather events, logistics constraints, and geopolitics may create volatility.
Outlook (Sep–Oct 2025):
Spot ULSD prices: Stable to slightly lower in most regions.
Retail pump prices: Small declines, slower to adjust than crude.
Inventories: Likely to remain tight with seasonal draws.
Refiners: Margins expected to stay strong on exports and constrained supply.
Takeaway:
Fuel-dependent businesses should review hedging positions, manage inventories carefully, and prepare for potential volatility into Q4.
#EnergyMarkets #ULSD #DistillateFuel #FuelOutlook #OilAndGas #EnergyRisk #SupplyChain #drakensbergenergy
ULSD Market Snapshot – 2 September 2025
Northwest Europe (CIF ARA): ULSD 10ppm was assessed at $714.50/mt, up $18.75/mt day-on-day. FOB NWE cargoes closed at $705.75/mt, reflecting sustained strength in European middle distillates.
Mediterranean (CIF Genoa/Lavera): ULSD 10ppm stood at $721.00/mt, up $18.25/mt, while FOB Med cargoes traded at $710.00/mt, also up $18.50/mt. The Med remains at a slight premium to NWE, underpinned by firm regional demand and constrained clean tanker availability.
Global Context: The rally in ULSD follows refinery disruptions across Europe and West Africa. Platts reported unexpected outages at Dangote’s FCC unit in Nigeria and extended maintenance at Shell Pernis (Rotterdam), both of which reduced prompt availability of middle distillates. Traders noted that despite Dangote’s outage, product remains in tanks, limiting near-term shortages.
Spreads & Differentials: The gasoil 0.1% market tracked higher alongside ULSD, with Med cargoes assessed at $710.25/mt. The ULSD MOPL differential also firmed, reflecting bullish paper market sentiment.
Futures: ICE Gasoil September contracts settled at $703.50/mt, with forward months easing slightly (October $698.75/mt, November $686.00/mt), indicating backwardation in the curve.
Macro Drivers: Brent futures traded around $68.81/bbl (Nov), offering stable feedstock costs. The European diesel complex continues to price in strong road transport demand post-summer and ongoing tightness in the gasoil balance.
Summary:
ULSD prices across Europe surged by nearly $19/mt on 2 September, marking one of the strongest daily gains in recent weeks. Mediterranean values remain firm at a premium to NWE, supported by robust demand and refinery outages limiting supply. Backwardated futures suggest near-term tightness but potential easing into Q4 as refinery runs normalize.
#drakensbergenergy #ULSDMarketSnapshot #Diesel #EnergyTrading #Platts #refinedproducts
President Trump has convened a packed diplomatic meeting at the White House hosting Ukrainian President Zelensky alongside European leaders to push for peace in Ukraine. The talks focused on security guarantees without NATO membership and possible direct talks between Zelensky and Putin, potentially hosted by the US amid cautious optimism from both Kiev and Washington.
Markets showed mixed reactions. Brent Crude climbed over 1 percent, hitting 66.60 dollars a barrel as traders contemplated potential easing of war driven supply uncertainty. Meanwhile, ULSD futures continued to slide, reaching a seven week trough at about 2.24 dollars per gallon, shedding about 5 cents per gallon and down over 2 percent this week a bearish signal despite peace hopes.
This unfolding diplomatic play Trump shepherding a possible Putin Zelensky summit with European support could mark a turning point or just the calm before the next storm.
#ukrainepeace #TrumpZelensky #putinsummit #OilMarkets #BrentCrude #ULSD #EnergyTrends #Geopolitics #drakensbergenergy
Trump-Putin Standoff Sparks Oil Market Jitters (Week of 29 July – 3 August 2025)
Oil markets are on edge as President Donald Trump’s threats to sanction Russia unless it agrees to a ceasefire with Ukraine have shifted trader sentiment sharply. Despite weak global demand forecasts and increased production from OPEC+, the market turned bullish, with Brent and WTI prices climbing on the back of rising geopolitical risk.
Brent crude opened the week above $69 per barrel, after Trump not only warned Russia of sanctions but also imposed a 25% tariff—and an additional levy—on Indian crude imports from Russia. India pushed back, saying it has no intention of halting long-term contracts, while China reiterated its right to secure energy supplies based on national interest.
The market’s reaction was swift. Institutional traders increased their bullish positions on Brent and WTI by nearly 40,000 contracts in the last week of July—the largest increase since tensions escalated between Israel and Iran earlier this year. The concern is clear: if Trump enforces secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian crude, it could disrupt up to 7 million barrels per day in global supply, pushing prices sharply higher.
At the same time, U.S. relations with India have soured, with trade tensions rising and strategic deals at risk. Trump has also threatened China with 100% tariffs, a move that could unravel recent trade progress and drive U.S. fuel prices up at home.
#OilMarkets #TrumpPutin #RussiaSanctions #EnergyPolitics #BrentCrude #WTI #IndiaOil #ChinaOil #GlobalOil #Geopolitics #CrudeOil #OilPriceVolatility #DrakensbergEnergy
